Posts Tagged ‘birth’

Seven billion people – after half a century with the Pill

November 14, 2011

More than a week before the numerologically so exciting (!!) date of November 11 this year of AD 2011, the population of the world officially reached the count of 7 billion – and this should not go unnoticed in a blog that is about women’s health and human reproduction management. Why, by the time the 11-11-11 day came about, more than 2.5 million more babies were born around the world.

Eyeball the “infographic” data below here, accepting that the image contains one of the small European languages. You can handle this because it is a graphic representation of the world and its population. The data is based on a United Nations Report about the State of the World Population. I did not find anything like this infographic when I googled for said UN report, and the bigger languages of Europe were presumably preoccupied by other concerns (like the economy, and the associated politics, stupid…).

So, we refer to this source with all those un-English letters with diacritical marks [RB, Lidové noviny. From: http://www.lidovky.cz/je-nas-7-miliard-lidstvo-v-budoucnu-uzivi-jen-zemedelska-revoluce-phq-/ln_zahranici.asp?c=A111031_085513_firmy-trhy_mev ]. It’s the numbers and symbols that matter, including the relative sizes of the circles. And note also that the blue circles represent the size of the respective continents’ populations in 2010 versus the red projected population sizes in the year 2050.

By 2050, only Europe’s population will have decreased (projected by 19 million), while all the other continents’ populations will have continued to grow. North America’s population, by the way, is projected to grow only due to immigration, otherwise it would be dropping, too. At least the USA’s would.

World population

World population

http://www.lidovky.cz/foto.asp?foto1=MEV3ed992_2poulaceTTTa.png

12 years times 365 days/year = 4,380 days

Population growth = 1,000,000,000 people / 4,380 days =  228,310.5 people born per day  (2,511,415.5 babies in 11 days = 1 billion divided by 4,380 days in 12 years times 11 days)

Check out the arithmetic of the global population growth in recent days, if you like. It is based on the birth rate of 1 billion births per 12 years. That is indicated in the bottom part of the infographic, showing the worldwide number of people in increasing billions against the years at which the given billion count was reached up to now, and is projected to be reached in the future [rok means year and pocet obyvatel means number of people]. It’s noticeable that the UN-projected future growth rate slows down: see how 16, 29, 27 years between additional billion increments are projected for the next 3 one-billion increments.

I won’t go into the (serious) economic and political consequences of these numbers. Rather, I ask you to note that the current birth rate (1 billion per 12 years) has held steady for the last 3 or 4 one-billion increases in world population. Over most of the last half a century, world population grew in steps of one billion per 12 years.

We see that reaching the first billion of humans took more than 18 centuries (including BC). The second billion then took 123 years and the third 33 years, both these surely influenced by the two world wars. After that, the Pill notwithstanding, almost quarter of a million new people have been and are born globally every day (1B / 4,380 days of 12 years = 228,310.5 births per day).

Evidently, the introduction of the oral contraceptive pills and related contraceptives has NOT quite stopped the global population explosion. But then, what about the United Nations-projected drop in the population of Europe (which is a continent where the Pill is surely available)?

Well, I propose to share with you some data from Google Ngram Viewer, about the statistics on the recent historical occurrence of certain topics (such as contraception) in all books published in English, the data obtained via http://books.google.com/ngrams/info .

Briefly, when you enter phrases into the Google Books Ngram Viewer, it displays a graph showing how much those phrases have occurred in a corpus of books (here English-language books) over the selected years (here 1900 to 2008).

And an important point, also cited from there.

Question: Many more books are published in modern years. Doesn’t this skew the results?

Answer: It would if we didn’t normalize by the number of books published in each year.

Here is an example of the occurrence of three phrases (topics) in English-language books over the century from 1900 till 2008, the latest year available. The topics are: pregnancy complications, difficult birth, and birth complications.

Ngram 1: pregnancy complications, difficult birth, birth complications

Ngram 1: pregnancy complications, difficult birth, birth complications

http://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=pregnancy+complications%2Cdifficult+birth%2Cbirth+complications&year_start=1900&year_end=2008&corpus=0&smoothing=5

The N numbers (or the number of phrase occurrences relative to all books) for the three topics are on the same scale as indicated on the vertical axis, and the graph shows that the number of books on difficult birth (red curve) rose steadily over the century – but the books on pregnancy complications (blue curve) and birth complications (green curve) shot up after 1960. These N numbers eventually level off and/or begin to decline after the year 2000. (As though everything has been written up, nothing new to publish?)

There were many more books written about birth control over the same period of 108 years. We can detect this in the N count on the vertical axis, which here has only 3 leading zeros as opposed to the 5 leading zeros at the maximum level in the previous graph (a hundred times as many books, even in 2008, after the decline from the mid-1970s). The initial rise from 1910 to 1930 must have been not on chemical contraception but (mostly) on the then happening calendar method of Ogino and Knaus, i.e. the later discarded so-called “Vatican Roulette”. That approach to birth control did not work – it could not work – so Margaret Sanger took it on herself (and on her wealthy-widow friend, Katharine McCormick) to cause the “magic bullet” of a pill to be developed. Some magic!

Ngram 2: birth control

Ngram 2: birth control

http://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=birth+control&year_start=1900&year_end=2008&corpus=0&smoothing=3

One more Ngram Viewer graph, since they say that three is a charm! The following graph compares the number of books on infertility (blue) with the number of books on contraception (red), and it is on the same scale as the birth control graph above (with only slightly lower maximum level, 0.00035% here vs. 0.00045% above).

Ngram 3: infertility and contraception

Ngram 3: infertility and contraception

http://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=infertility%2Ccontraception&year_start=1900&year_end=2008&corpus=0&smoothing=3

Three may be a charm, but I will show you one more, so that you (or your friendly gynecologist) will not accuse me of trying to show that chemical contraception has caused infertility (the infertility epidemic). I have merely shared Google’s Ngram Viewer statistics on books written on given topics. Discourses written on contraception preceded those on infertility by at least 10 years, and the number of infertility books was still rising when contraceptive books were already declining in numbers in the 1980s.

Here then is one more Ngram comparing N numbers of books on behavior problems (blue), mental problems (red), and books on birthing (green curve).

Ngram 4: behavior problems, mental problems, birthing

Ngram 4: behavior problems, mental problems, birthing

http://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=behavior+problems%2Cmental+problems%2C+birthing&year_start=1900&year_end=2008&corpus=0&smoothing=3

You see that there are four leading zeros in the scale on the vertical axis, so the order of magnitude of the graphed N numbers is between the two orders of magnitude discussed above (it’s an order of magnitude below infertility and contraception). All three of the numbers in this Ngram rise around 1970, behavior problems books before, birthing books after.

Why did the numbers of books on birthing rise so sharply some 15 years after 1960? I don’t know that there is such a thing as invalid questions. The curves for mental health and birth are correlated, rising around 1970, too (not shown here).

Chemical contraception has not worked to reverse the global population explosive growth although it appears to have reduced the extent of the explosion.

But at what cost? Do look at the last Ngram, below, which compares the number of books on birth control (blue), sexually transmitted diseases (red), STD (green), VD (yellow), and STDs (dark blue). It is on the same scale as the birth control graph above (the second in the series). The green spike after 1960 is STD in singular, as opposed to sexually transmitted diseases (red) and STDs (dark blue), which you see rising slowly after 1980, paralleled by the higher green curve in those years, which starts going up even earlier.

This can be rationalized by the fact that earlier on there was merely one STD (or two), called VD in Britain and in Europe (yellow curve), where the rise occurred somewhat later than in the U.S., along with the slight delay in the “sexual revolution” and its consequences or rather the concerns about those consequences. The broad green, red and dark blue hills of elevated N readings before year 2000 reflect the multitude of STDs today, which numbers did not exist before the sexual revolution. The singular VD has morphed into the plural STDs and sexually transmitted diseases.

Ngram 5: birth control, sexually transmitted diseases, STD, VD, STDs

Ngram 5: birth control, sexually transmitted diseases, STD, VD, STDs

http://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=birth+control%2Csexually+transmitted+diseases%2CSTD%2CVD%2CSTDs&year_start=1900&year_end=2008&corpus=0&smoothing=3

I leave the “now what” maybe for another time, but a follower of this blog will have an idea.

As of this writing, to cite the three bioZhena’s Weblog Top Posts (the past week):

Trying to conceive, #ttc, or the frustration of sub-fertility & infertility in 2010/2011          40 views

Saint Nicholas Day, his legend, and our modern day’s prematurity, EDD calculation, gestational age, problem with LMP          33 views

Critique of birth control efficacies in NFP as published by Marquette University researchers          21 views

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Instant detection of pregnancy and of Early Pregnancy Loss, EPL – the adversary of Trying To Conceive, TTC – especially after age 25

November 11, 2010

Early Pregnancy Loss is also known as #stillbirth or #miscarriage, or Early Embryonic Mortality (EEM), and the Ovulona™ is a tool of evidence-based personalized medicine.

After the optimum fertility age of the early twenties, achieving motherhood gets more difficult. It becomes even more essential than before to know your three fertile days, during which – and only during which – conception can occur.

The simple basic principle is: Fertility status detection must be easy and reliable. PLUS early pregnancy detection is really important, and it should be built-in, an integral part of the conception-aiding tool.

Why? Because:

1) early in pregnancy the conceived baby would be harmed by some of the medications taken by the woman, e.g. by a psychiatric medication with teratogenic effect (harmful to the fetus, causing a congenital disorder);

and 2) because of the annual 600,000 miscarriages – per CDC statistics – out of the 6 million US births, which means that at least some 10% of pregnancies are lost to early pregnancy loss (EPL), miscarriage, stillbirth.

Many EPLs go unnoticed. The EPL is a part of the TTC [Trying To Conceive] or subfertility/infertility problem. Our Ovulona monitor of FOLLICULOGENESIS IN VIVO™ is the prospective solution for managing the problem.

The Ovulona™ detects the 3 fertile days for conception, and it will also automatically detect pregnancy immediately upon conception. Similar to early pregnancy loss — its detection is the inverse of pregnancy detection, which both involve the follicular waves. Like this:

Follicular waves disappear = pregnancy detected

versus

waves reappear in early pregnancy =  early pregnancy loss detected.

Furthermore, the cyclic profile data captured by the Ovulona can be used by your healthcare provider to assess what is going on, and provide more effective help.

DIFFICULT USE OF EXISTING OPKs [Ovulation Prediction Kits] is shown in the following tweet by a @WannaBeMom: “1st month using opk. Do the lines usually start light and then get darker day by day or do they ever go back & forth b4 ovulation?”

Our electronic device will take the WannaBeMoms into a different world of baby-making. See  http://s755.photobucket.com/user/vaclavkirsner/library/Second%20album/Pregnancy%20and%20birth%20control%20how-to%20by%20bioZhena?sort=2&page=1 = a pictorial “Pregnancy and birth control how-to by bioZhena”.

Honey is Sweeter than Blood by Salavador Dali, 1941

Honey is Sweeter than Blood by Salavador Dali, 1941

For a woman in her 30s who’s had a miscarriage or even two or three, “any delay in attempting conception could further decrease the chances of a healthy baby”, says CNN reporting on a medical study, http://www.cnn.com/2010/HEALTH/08/05/miscarriage.try.again.asap/ .

Study: Women who conceive within six months of miscarriage reduce risk of another.”

November 2016 review and meta-analysis (data on more than a million women): “With an Inter Pregnancy Interval of less than 6 months, the overall risk of further miscarriage and preterm delivery  were significantly reduced.”

These are fundamental principles.

And another principle, not brought up by the CNN or by the study itself, is that a tool for monitoring the early stage of pregnancy for EPL is most desirable. We’d say, mandatory. The Ovulona device monitors (or tracks the process of) folliculogenesis in vivo, which includes the follicular waves that occur after ovulation. The waves disappear upon conception because the reproductive system does not go into another menstrual cycle – it’s pregnant.

In case of EPL, Early Pregnancy Loss (miscarriage), the waves will come back. Early Pregnancy Loss, or Early Embryonic Mortality, is quite a common sad experience of many of us.

The essential point made here is that the woman’s and her physician’s decisions should be guided by the folliculogenesis cyclic profile (and/or its distortion due to distress of any kind). The woman and her doctor should not make decisions or pass recommendations working in the dark, and the data, on which any decision should be based, must be personal to the given patient.

That’s what the Ovulona from bioZhena is for. Personalized medicine. Evidence based medicine. Should you be new to this, https://biozhena.wordpress.com/about/ is an introduction.

Automatic pregnancy detection is inherent in the Folliculogenesis In Vivo™ cyclic profile (follicular waves disappear).

This is a screen shot of one of my narrated slides about “what’s going on here” – view (and hear) the slide at https://biozhena.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/single-slide-unprecedented-wealth-of-info-narrated.pps.

Note specifically that: The follicular waves, which occur after ovulation [when the body prepares for the next menstrual cycle], cannot remain in place after fertilization succeeds and conception takes place [because the post-ovulation regime change is even more profound]. That is the principle of instant detection of pregnancy. As opposed to the waiting for the HPT [Home Pregnancy Test] result.

HCG or Human Chorionic Gonadotropin laboratory signature

HCG or Human Chorionic Gonadotropin laboratory signature of the biomarker – detected in a pregnant woman’s urine about 2 weeks into her pregnancy by a HPT home-use urine test – as a color change (into which color the HPT reduces the illustrated complex lab signature)

Should the conceptus [product of conception, early embryo] be lost to EEM, Early Embryonic Mortality (miscarriage), the follicular waves come back to be seen by the Ovulona. That’s the principle of early detection of the miscarriage, and of detecting the return of the non-pregnant condition.

Trying to conceive again should be based on the personal FIV™ [FOLLICULOGENESIS IN VIVO] cyclic profile data generated by the patient, that is, by the woman trying to have a baby. This is a principle of evidence-based medicine. Personalized medicine.

Entre Les Trous De La Memoire by Appia

The Ovulona is intended to help people such as those writing in a forum as follows:

My partner and i started trying for a baby in jan And Concieved in the first month. Unfortunately in march at 8 weeks I had a miscarriage. We have been trying since with no luck. Could something be wrong. Please help this is really getting me down. http://www.netdoctor.co.uk/interactive/discussion/viewtopic.php?t=57881&f=5

We got pregnant the first cycle with both my ds and dd. I am most likely moving to cycle #11 with this baby. We did conceive on the second cycle of trying with baby #3 but we miscarried a week later. Nothing since then. I’m not sure why this time is taking so much longer. http://www.mothering.com/discussions/showthread.php?p=16029816

Can anyone advise? My daughter has been trying to get pregnant for several years. Her husband is fine. My daughter has now been asked to go for a scan which scared the life out of me (you automatically think something is horribly wrong). Can someone tell me what the scan is about – what sort of scan is it? http://www.netdoctor.co.uk/interactive/discussion/viewtopic.php?t=31528&f=5

The information contained in the folliculogenesis cyclic profile, as illustrated in the slide captured above, is meaningful and can help the healthcare provider to answer questions such as these.

About the EDD and/or EDC issue, and a request for input from readers

January 11, 2008

EDD stands for Estimated Date of Delivery, while EDC stands for Estimated Date of Confinement (the time of going to hospital for the delivery, “the lying-in of a woman in childbed“).

Seasonality of Google Searches Bears Out These Thoughts And Plans

August and July, October and/or September are the months of the season of most births in the U.S. And Mums-To-Be are rather anxious about the timing of the pregnancy-to-birthing process, gestation.

Just see how, well ahead of the upcoming birth time, the interest in the search term “gestation” peaks every year in April, give or take a month. You can see it at https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=2004-12-31%202017-01-18&geo=US&q=gestation (search terms: United States, 12/31/04 – 1/18/17, All categories, Web Search). I’ll expand on the seasonality aspect below, after I share some thoughts and plans.

The bioZhena thinking, in one brief sentence, is this: Aim to replace stochastic with deterministic, which is the purpose of our eukairosicTM diagnostic tools. Then the E in EDD and EDC will stand for EXPECTED.

‘Expected’ based on a measured data based computation, as opposed to a subjective recall based physician’s guess. Because, as I say in the very last sentence at the end of this article: Your approaching EDD and EDC are not normalized/relative like those in the statistical graph …

The medical position on the current status of obstetrics can be characterized by the following two papers.

1) Theory of obstetrics: an epidemiologic framework for justifying medically indicated early delivery

[BMC Pregnancy Childbirth. 2007 Mar 28;7:4. Joseph KS, Perinatal Epidemiology Research Unit, Department of Obstetrics & Gynaecology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada]

QUOTE: Modern obstetrics is faced with a serious paradox. Obstetric practice is becoming increasingly interventionist … Whereas … mortality declines exponentially with increasing gestational duration, temporal increases in medically indicated labour induction and cesarean delivery have resulted in rising rates of preterm birth and declining rates of post-term birth. … [This] provides a theoretical justification for medically indicated early delivery and reconciles the contemporary divide between obstetric theory and obstetric practice. END QUOTE.

And 2) A re-look at the duration of human pregnancy

[Singapore Med J. 2006 Dec;47(12):1044-8. Bhat RA and Kushtagi P, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Kasturba Medical College, Manipal, India]

QUOTE: The duration of human pregnancy is arbitrarily taken as 280 days (40 weeks). Foetuses are considered to be at high risk once pregnancy goes beyond the expected date of confinement. … Conclusion: Mean gestational age at the onset of labour for women native to the area of study was 272 days (standard deviation 9 days). Pregnancies beyond a duration of 280 days showed significantly increased perinatal morbidity. It is suggested that there is a need for determining the length of gestation and to compile gestation-wise incidence of … neonatal morbidity indicators for different populations. END QUOTE.

Related medical publications are here.

I will rely on the birthing specialist, Janelle Durham, to verbalize for you the status quo in this aspect of the homo sapiens experience – below. First,

Gestation Period, Gestational Age and OvulonaTM

Per Encyclopedia of Childhood and Adolescence, article Gestation Period and Gestational Age ,

” a gestation period of thirty-eight weeks (266 days) is calculated for women who are pregnant by a procedure such as in vitro fertilization or artificial insemination that allows them to know their exact date of conception.”

The Ovulona device from bioZhena will provide to the woman user a very simple means to record the day of any intercourse as a part of her record of the menstrual cyclic profile. In every cycle, whether pregnancy is planned or not. This must become a part of the routine. The information will be electronically recorded along with the daily or almost-daily measurement data inherent in the use of the Ovulona.

With that menstrual cycling history data, this intercourse-timing information will be available for optional use by the woman’s physician(s). And in due course (contingent on funding) the cervical ring transformation of the Ovulona will remove the need for daily insertion…

Therefore, the routine use of the Ovulona (and of the internally worn HaloTM cervical ring) will provide for an equivalent of the above-referenced 38-week (266 days) calculation available to the women receiving IVF or artificial insemination. This alone should be an improvement on the current way of EDD/EDC assessment. In this context, an investigation should be undertaken into the question of whether any inference can be drawn from the woman’s menstrual cycle history prior to the conceptive (baby-making) intercourse.

Any comments on this would be welcome, even about anecdotal or subjective or tentative observations that may be available. However non-scientific, however tentative, however uncertain an individual answer or input from you may be…

Questions

Questions such as: What evidence is available in medical literature (or maybe in unpublished records?) about the outcomes of the IVF or artificial insemination pregnancies, i.e. about their documented gestation periods? Does the 38 weeks projection work? Always? If not always, can anything be correlated with any deviation?

Has anyone looked at whether there may be an effect of geography in terms of hot vs. cold climate on gestation periods of natives? And perhaps even at whether a gestation-period difference may arise in data at a well-selected locale between winter and summer deliveries (of course only natural, not “medically indicated early deliveries”)?

The complicating effect of first versus subsequent pregnancy has already been noted, of course… That evidence exists for gestational length variability with ethnicity (or race) has been noted, too:

“122,415 nulliparous women with singleton live fetuses at the time of spontaneous labour, giving birth in the former North West Thames Health Region, London, UK. Results: The median gestational age at delivery was 39 weeks in Blacks and Asians and 40 weeks in white Europeans.” [International Journal of Epidemiology 2004, Volume 33, Number 1, pp. 107-113 ].

I am happy to observe that this outcome is not counter-intuitive (because women with ancestors in hot climates seem to tend to shorter gestational age at delivery than those who can be presumed to originate from colder climate conditions).

Conceivably, such a preliminary info, which I am after here, is not forthcoming — and we shall have to try and gather even these preliminary data in a systematic manner when the time comes, but no question asked, nothing learned… Public or private input would be appreciated. (I wrote this request here in 2008.)

Although focused on the very serious complication in pregnancy, A Balancing Act: Ideal Delivery Timing & Chronic Hypertension by Eva Martin, MD is an example of the kind of information that we will need when setting out to start the adaptation of our technology to the challenge of assessing and managing EDD/EDC. Retweeting her piece, I tweeted in April 2017: This is why when the monitoring will better assess EDD/EDC >abandon old Naegele rule.

Dr. Martin has a few videos online on the subject of due dates, and here is one of them (~2 minutes): How to Calculate Your Due Date After A.R.T. –  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4OCSwxTEIg  (in a nutshell: Fertilization + 266 days [38 weeks] as we already noted above, with reference to the Encyclopedia of Childhood and Adolescence).

There in any case does seem to be some, perhaps fairly good, basis for this attempt at a preparation for an introduction of a tool for definitive assessment of EDD and EDC.

Due Dates Paper by Ms. Durham

According to the due dates paper by Janelle Durham, written for Certification with Birth Education in January, 2002 , QUOTE: “some women are aware of when they ovulate, either based on formal methods and record-keeping such as daily temperature checks, or on physical symptoms such as mild pain upon ovulation, or observation of changes in vaginal mucus. Many women know the dates when conception was possible, because they know the dates when they had intercourse during their most recent menstrual cycle.

Due dates can be calculated based on these dates, but many physicians prefer to calculate it from date of last menstrual period. They may only calculate from conception date if conception was medically managed and supervised through techniques such as artificial insemination.

Based on date of last normal menstrual period.

Due dates are typically calculated based upon the date the last menstrual period began, according to the mother’s report. Naegele’s rule assumes that ovulation occurred 14 days after LMP, which is only the case for women with 28 day cycles. Some caregivers will ask their patients for a history of menstrual cycles so that they can adjust this number, as appropriate, for cycles of different lengths or irregular cycles.

It’s also important to consider: recent use of oral contraceptives, and their possible effect on ovulation date; inaccurate memory about when the last period occurred, the possibility of interpreting post-conception ‘spotting’ as a light period, and unrecognized pregnancy losses. These issues all complicate due date prediction, and it’s estimated that nearly 25% of infants who would be classified as preterm birth on the basis of the last normal menstrual period are not preterm. (Cited in Health Canada)” END QUOTE.

At this point, let me translate the one brief sentence I wrote at the top into a less specialist language. Ms. Durham shows a statistical distribution of gestation periods applicable to any woman, and that is the approach I labeled stochastic, because of its statistical nature. I admit, the word is harking back to the days of my postgrad phys chem endeavors, which were mostly endeavours at the time. 🙂 We could also say, probabilistic – two syllables longer, though!

Gestational Age at Birth vs. Weeks since LMP

http://transitiontoparenthood.com/ttp/birthed/duedatespaper.htm

Janelle Durham, for Certification with Birth Education NW. January, 2002.

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Our Goal – Your Comments

With our eurokairosicTM diagnostic tools, we generally aim to determine the right time, and in the case at hand we propose to provide for a much less fuzzy assessment of the EDD and EDC. After all, precedent exists in the A.R.T. arena, and prerequisites, too, to some extent at least.

In a nutshell: Let’s replace the LMP/Naegele-based approach with a hard data-based technique, applied to each and by each Mom individually.

Again, your comments on and/or answers to the questions above would be useful. Public or private input would be appreciated. [Private to: vaclav@biozhena.com please.]

In any case, for more on this topic see a related post published on December 8, 2010: Saint Nicholas Day, his legend, and our modern day’s prematurity, EDD calculation, gestational age, problem with LMP. We show there data from a study of more than 24.5 thousand pregnancies demonstrating that “most (71.5%) inductions done post-term (> 294 days) according to LMP dates were not post-term if ultrasound scan dates alone are used to calculate the gestational age.”

Vision

It is perfectly reasonable a vision that, in future, an expectant mother’s EDD and/or EDC will be assessed based on her folliculogenesis in vivo (FIV™) data which will include the electronic record of every sexual intercourse. The EDD/EDC will be computed automatically and provided by her own Ovulona Smart Sensor™.

So that, for example, a woman in and native to (or perhaps with ancestry from) a hot climate region might automatically obtain her EDD of 39 weeks when she electronically registers her day of intercourse on her Ovulona. Versus 40 weeks for a white European, consistent with the knowledge base noted above and assuming its validation.

No more uncertainties as in the LMP-based estimation. The bell-shape curve of distribution (such as the Janelle Durham graph above) will be replaced by personalized specifics.

Seasonality of EDC Searches on Google

On June 1, 2015 (at about the time of the year when, statistically, most American expectant mothers are about the last trimester away from their Estimated Date of Delivery and of Confinement) I add the following illustration. It appears to suggest why in May and June each year for the last 6 years there is always a noticeable increase in the viewing statistic of this blog post that you are reading. The interest is up.

Seasonality of Search Google Trends for search term “EDC” 2009 - 2015

See the image better as Single slide – Google Trends for EDC Search 2009 – 2015 e

Check the trend for yourself by moving from the screen shot image to the actual graph online via the link http://v.gd/c2MOyR i.e. http://www.google.com/trends/explore#cat=0-45&q=edc&geo=US&date=1%2F2009%2078m&cmpt=q&tz= . Once online, the Google graph shows (with cursor put on data for different months) the counts of US searches for EDC in the different months. You can change the range of the time period via the Time button, and the country of interest via the Country button. The numbers represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart. At the time of writing this, it was the number of searches in June 2014 (assigned the maximal relative value of 100).

Move the cursor along the graph to see the values for other months within the examined period. You’ll see the EDC value of 100 in June 2014; in June 2013 the US peak was at 72 counts. The worldwide trend is much like the US trend because the statistics are driven by the overwhelming majority of American searches. E.g. the May 2015 count worldwide is only higher by 7 more searches than the US value of 48; in June 2014 the worldwide count was the same 100 as the US while in June 2013 the worldwide count was 20 counts higher than the US count of 65.

That’s as of June 3, 2015. Might this change later? Well, click http://www.google.com/trends/explore#cat=0-45&q=edc&geo=US&date=1%2F2009%2082m&cmpt=q&tz=Etc%2FGMT%2B6 and see the graph as of September 12, 2015, which does show the June 2015 peak indubitably.

The worldwide count can be obtained via the Country button on the Explore bar in Google Trends (USA was selected here). The data are normalized, relative numbers – you can read up on it… It’s a Google algorithm.

And here now is a January 6, 2017 update of the Google Trends EDC results, showing that the June peak (in search activity for EDC) continues to be there; in June 2016 it stood at 88 while in June 2015 it was 89, as found by placing the cursor on the peak in the online graph (only one data point can be screen-printed as in the image here) – the URL is below the image:

google-trends-edc-12-31-08-to-12-31-16

https://www.google.com/trends/explore?cat=45&date=2008-12-31%202016-12-31&geo=US&q=edc

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Dear Reader,

Your approaching EDD and EDC – if indeed their coming up is the reason why you are reading this – are not normalized or relative values like those in the statistical graph

— and good luck, all the best from bioZhena!

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Parturition means birthing (birth) and dystocia a difficult one

January 9, 2008

And what is a parturition alarm?

For these and other entries, see the Alphabet of bioZhena at

https://biozhena.wordpress.com/2007/11/28/the-alphabet-of-biozhena/

Parturition alarm:

This is a concept that has to do with the need to know when labor or delivery is beginning, because the birthing female may be in need of help.

At the time of writing the first Alphabet draft more than five years ago, an Internet search produced only one such technology, a pressure-sensing girth, suitable for the horse breeder only, because it utilizes the fact that the horse mare lies on her side only in the process of parturition. To illustrate, we borrow a nice picture from a more recent publication found in today’s search on parturition alarm, which search still shows a preponderance of equine innovations:

Equine birth alarm

In the originally noted publication, reference was made to some other method that would detect the emergence of the amniotic sac or of the foal from the vulva (vaginal orifice) but that was not a satisfactory solution. In the horse-breeding arena, about 5-6% of births require help. Various approaches to the birth alarm solution have been attempted.

These days, there are quite a few patents etc. found in the parturition alarm search. And even 5 years ago, a patent from New Mexico University should have been found because their intra-vaginal parturition alarm patent (basically for cows) was published in 1987.

In human obstetrics, where most births take place in hospitals, determining the right time of confinement would be very beneficial. bioZhena (and/or its sister company, bioPecus) will investigate our vaginal sensor technology – suitably modified – with a view to developing a parturition alarm applicable to any mammal.

Also relevant in this context is the implication of the Ovulona making available the menstrual cycle (folliculogenesis) data over many months or cycles before conception. This will enable a more accurate anticipation of the EDD, Expected Date of Delivery. You will understand this better below, under Parturition. I highly recommend that you check out Figuring Your Due Date, too – from the Midwife Archives.

Let us put it this way: Since this is the bioZhena blog (and not bioPecus, for veterinary tools), the EDD issue must be addressed first, before any parturition alarm developments. Because we are primarily concerned with the Rerum Naturare Feminina.

And it would still be of great interest to hear from an expert Latinist about the correct way of saying this in plural, the Natural Thing of Women, the Women’s Natural Thing…

This being a reference to /2007/12/16/cervix-uteri-and-seven-or-eight-related-things/ .

Parturition:

The process of giving birth; childbirth. [From Late Latin parturitio, from Latin parturitus, past participle of parturire, to be in labor.]

Parturition is illustrated at http://www.mhhe.com/biosci/esp/2001_saladin/folder_structure/re/m2/s5/ .

The illustration’s legend indicates that physicians usually calculate the gestation period (length of the pregnancy) as 280 days: 40 weeks or 10 lunar months from the last menstrual period (LMP) to the date of confinement, which is the estimated date of delivery of the infant [EDD].

Indubitably, due dates are a little-understood concept:

“Truth is, even if you know the exact date when you ovulated, you still can only estimate the baby’s unique gestational cycle to about plus or minus two weeks” [ http://www.gentlebirth.org/archives/dueDates.html ]. Why should that be? Because of the variability of your menstrual cycle lengths? (They vary even if you do not think so).

Statistically, the gestation time for human babies has a mean of 278 days and a standard deviation of 12 days, an uncomfortably large spread. The old Naegele Rule of a 40-week pregnancy was invented by a Bible-inspired botanist Harmanni Boerhaave in 1744 and later promoted by Franz Naegele in 1812. It is still believed to work fairly well as a rule of thumb for many pregnancies. However, the rule of thumb also suggests: “If your menstrual cycles are about 28 days, quite regular, and this is not your first child, your physician’s dating is probably fine. If your cycles are longer or irregular, or if this is your first child, the due date your physician has given you may be off, setting you up for all kinds of problems” (induction, interventions, C-section among them).

This is where the bioZhena technology can be expected to provide help, making it possible to reckon the EDD with recorded menstrual cycle (folliculogenesis history) data rather than merely with the LMP + 280 days. This, once properly researched, may be expected to have a significant impact on obstetric management. — Any comments?

It is ironic that, in this age of technological medicine, American women worry about their birthing process not being allowed to take its own natural course on account of an ancient method of predicting the EDD.

Ironically, the 40 week dogma – which is the gestational counterpart of the unacceptable calendar method of birth control (the so-called “Vatican roulette”) – does not reconcile the 295+ days of the 10 lunar months; and yet, at the same time, the U.S. has an unusually high perinatal death rate, resulting from high statistics of too early (preterm) labor. Quid agitur? See also under Gestation.

Dystocia or birthing difficulty:

Dystocia is difficult delivery, difficult parturition. From Latin dys-, bad, from Greek dus-, ill, hard + Greek tokos, delivery. Calf losses at birth result in a major reduction in the net calf crop. Data show that 60% of these losses are due to dystocia (defined as delayed and difficult birth) and at least 50% of these calf deaths could be prevented by timely obstetrical assistance. The USDA web site http://larrl.ars.usda.gov/physiology_history.htm is apparently no longer there but when it was it indicated that an electronic calving monitor was being developed to determine maternal and fetal stress during calving. These studies are important since they are leading the way for developing methods to reduce the $800 million calf and cow loss that occurs each year at calving in the USA’s beef herds.

In analogy with the superiority of in vivo monitoring of folliculogenesis versus tracking behavioral estrus (heat), in vivo monitoring of the progress towards parturition must be a priori a more promising approach.

The telemetric version of the BioMeter – the animal version of the Ovulona technology – will hopefully provide a tool for these efforts. Once tested on animals, human use will be a logical extension of the endeavor. (Or endeavour, should it take place in Europe! Smiley…)

Comment about the EDD and/or EDC issue, and request for input:

Again, EDD stands for Estimated Day of Delivery, while EDC stands for Estimated Day of Confinement.

Per Encyclopedia of Childhood and Adolescence, article Gestation Period and Gestational Age [ http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_g2602/is_0002/ai_2602000272 ], ” a gestation period of thirty-eight weeks (266 days) is calculated for women who are pregnant by a procedure such as in vitro fertilization or artificial insemination that allows them to know their exact date of conception.”

The Ovulona device from bioZhena will provide to the woman user a very simple means to record the day of any intercourse. In every cycle, whether pregnancy is planned or not. This must become a part of the routine. The information will be electronically recorded along with the daily or almost-daily measurement data inherent in the use of the Ovulona. With that menstrual cycling history data, this intercourse-timing information will be available for optional use by the woman’s physician(s).

Therefore, the routine use of the Ovulona will provide for an equivalent of the above-referenced 38-week (266 days) calculation available to the women receiving IVF or artificial insemination.

This alone should be an improvement on the current way of EDD/EDC assessment.

In addition, an investigation should be undertaken into the question of whether any inference can be drawn from the woman’s menstrual cycle history prior to the conceptive intercourse. Any comments on this would be welcome, even about anecdotal or subjective or tentative observations that may be available already. However non-scientific, however tentative, however uncertain an individual answer or input from you may be…

E.g., do women with more or less regular cycles tend to exhibit a regular gestation period, and vice versa?

And, certainly, what evidence is available in medical literature (or maybe in unpublished records?) about the outcomes of the IVF and/or artificial insemination pregnancies, i.e., about their documented gestation periods? Does the 38 weeks projection work? Always? If not always, can anything be correlated with any deviation?

Do women with distinctly irregular menstrual cycles tend to have non-regular gestation periods?

The complicating effect of first versus subsequent pregnancy has already been noted, of course…

Conceivably, there is no such preliminary info available, and we shall have to try and gather even these preliminary data in a systematic manner, but – no question asked, nothing learned… Public or private input would be appreciated.

Birthday, and how it relates to the bioZhena enterprise – eukairosic™ diagnostic tools

December 28, 2007

Today is a major anniversary related to the bioZhena enterprise. Namely, a round-number (and not small) birthday of the offspring whose begetting had much, if not everything, to do with the inception of the project.

The biologically educated member of the would-be parental team insisted that medical help would have to be the very last resort, as she did not wish to be poked in and subjected to the various medical procedures available in the country of the proud Albion (that, alas, no longer ruled the waves!), where this awakening was going on. The image of what she resented getting into is telling, and it’s not even the whole story.

Woman in stirups sketch

Awakening on the part of said couple, who till then took steps to minimize or theoretically avoid getting in the family way, owing to circumstances. As in too many instances the world over, the “awakening” was left until somewhat too late. I do not wish to talk about age specifics, but you probably know that particularly female fertility (more accurately put, fecundity or fecundability) decreases starting around or even before the Christ’s age, and so – in retrospect – it was no great surprise to find that achieving pregnancy was not as simple as expected. At the time, actually, this was a great surprise…

At the time, yours truly was not an expert in the field that deals with certain practicalities of the most important aspect of life, by which many of us mean procreation, reproduction, and its management. I am referring to some insight into the practicalities on the female side of things procreative, which insight was not there at the time – but the better half knew the basic fundamental that I now delight in referencing as eukairosic.

In a nutshell, the word refers to the right time, opportune time – exactly what we are about the strategic or “right time; the opportune point of time at which something should be done.” A window of opportunity is kairos time.

For more about this, the Wikipedia article can be recommended, at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kairos . Let’s cite: Kairos (καιρός) is an ancient Greek word meaning the “right or opportune moment,” or “God’s time” [sic; thus said – but this should say “gods’ time”]. The ancient Greeks had many gods, and two words for time, chronos and kairos. While the former refers to chronological or sequential time, the latter signifies “a time in between”, a moment of undetermined period of time in which “something” special happens. What the special something is depends on who is using the word. END QUOTE.

If you visit that article, you will probably understand why I would like to look at the possibility of adopting as our company logo QUOTE a monochrome fresco by Mantegna at Palazzo Ducale in Mantua (about 1510 C.E.) that shows a female Kairos (most probably Occasio)… UNQUOTE.

You will also appreciate that, since we are not theologians, and because “eu-“ is the Greek prefix meaning well or good or true or easy, my choice of the adjective that we want to trademark as descriptive of bioZhena’s wares is eukairosic™.

And so here, for the sake of accurate definition, is one other item from The Alphabet of bioZhena – /2007/11/28/the-alphabet-of-biozhena/

Fecundability and fecundity:

Fecundability is the probability of achieving pregnancy within one menstrual cycle – about 20% or maybe 25% in normal couples [sic; the probability depends on many factors, including age – vide infra, or see below].

Fecundity is the ability to achieve a live birth.

Fecundability is strongly influenced by the age of the partners, and it is maximal at about age 24. There is a slight decline at ages 24 – 30, and a rapid decline after age 30.

The words are derived from Latin fecundus, fecund, from the root of fetus, via Old French fecond. Fecund means fruitful in children, or prolific.

As for the eukairosic diagnostic tools, their utility goes beyond reproductive management. Due to folliculogenesis (menstrual cycling), even things such as administration of medications or certain diagnostic examinations must be performed at the right time within the menstrual cycle…

Scire quod sciendum

fecundoscitus!!! 🙂

Thus spoke the exegete and father of Barnaby and Petrushka, Vaclav Kirsner © 2007

 ‘To know what is to be known’.

Fetal sex pre-selection – the fundamentals

December 15, 2007

For this and the various related concepts and terms, see the Alphabet of bioZhena at

/2007/11/28/the-alphabet-of-biozhena/

Fetal sex pre-selection:

Here is the underlying principle: Out of the 46 chromosomes (23 pairs), the last pair is the sex chromosome. It is of the XX type in the female and XY type in the male. The ovum (egg) has X type chromosomes only, while 50% of the sperm have X chromosomes and 50% have Y chromosomes. If an X sperm fertilizes the egg, this results in an XX combination, which is a female offspring. If a Y sperm fertilizes the egg, the result is an XY combination and a male child.

According to http://www.fertility-docs.com/fertility_gender.phtml , “the selection of gender has been a quest of couples for as far back as recorded history allows. Early drawings from prehistoric times suggest that sex selection efforts were being investigated by our earliest ancestors. Later history shows intense interest in sex selection by early Asian (Chinese), Egyptian and Greek cultures. This is followed by documented scientific efforts beginning in the 1600s to sway the chances of achieving a pregnancy by a variety of methods…” QUOTE UNQUOTE

Two approaches to sex selection have been demonstrated in the current scientific literature. One approach employs the tools and methods of assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs), manipulating the genetic material of the sperm prior to artificial insemination, so as to facilitate fertilization by the selected one of the two genders of the spermatozoa. The other approach attempts to enhance the probability of conceiving the desired gender by appropriate timing of the conception event with respect to ovulation. This is a highly controversial subject despite the fact that a substantial body of work on it has been published.

Thus, a 2001 publication by respected experts from a premier infertility treatment institute (G.Hodgen et al., see below) has put forward evidence that male spermatozoa (Y-chromosome-bearing sperm) live longer than female spermatozoa (X-chromosome-bearing).

This is consistent with earlier findings by Auckland, New Zealand researchers that boys tend to be conceived earlier in the fertile period than girls (the earlier conception requires a longer lifetime of the sperm). This was discussed in our two previous posts: /2007/12/02/regarding-fetal-sex-preselection/ and /2007/12/03/fetal-sex-preselection-illustrated/ .

A 1991 Johns Hopkins University meta-analysis of six NFP studies concluded that the data showed “a statistically significant lower proportion of male births among conceptions that occur during the most fertile time of the cycle”, meaning near ovulation. Indeed, the Auckland study by Professor John France’s group found that 65% of male infants were conceived 2 to 5 days before ovulation while “71% of the born girls were conceived from intercourse timed between 1 day before to 1 day after the estimated time of ovulation”. This was based on 55 births. See the referenced previous posts.

Notes:

1) Hodgen et al. paper on different survival times of X and Y sperm:

Andrologia, Volume 33 Issue 4 Page 199 – July 2001
Differential binding of X- and Y-chromosome-bearing human spermatozoa to zona pellucida in vitro
Q. Van Dyk, M. C. Mahony and G. D. Hodgen

2) We might refer to the second, the correct-timing, approach to fetal sex pre-selection as eukairosic. This [Eukairosic™] with reference to http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/cgi-bin/lexindex?lookup=kairo/s〈=Greek

kairos III. more freq. of Time, exact or critical time, season, opportunity… … …

3)  France et al. paper with data on fetal sex pre-selection by timing intercourse:

J.T. France, F.M. Graham, L. Gosling, P. Hair and B.S. Knox, “Characteristics of natural conception cycles occurring in a prospective study of sex preselection: fertility awareness symptoms, hormone levels, sperm survival, and pregnancy outcome”, International Journal of Fertility 37 (4), 224 – 255, 1992.

For more about fetal sex pre-selection, see “Fetal Sex Preselection – Illustrated” at https://biozhena.wordpress.com/2007/12/03/fetal-sex-preselection-%E2%80%93-illustrated/

Fetus:

The organism that develops from the embryo at the end of about seven weeks of pregnancy and receives nourishment through the placenta. Fetus, plural fetuses:

1. The unborn young of a viviparous vertebrate having a basic structural resemblance to the adult animal. Viviparous: Giving birth to living offspring that develop within the mother’s body. Most mammals and some other animals are viviparous. Vertebrates have a backbone or spinal column.

2. In humans, the unborn young from the end of the eighth week after conception to the moment of birth, as distinguished from the earlier embryo. [From Latin fetus, offspring.]

Embryo:

The embryo is the organism that develops from the pre-embryo, and begins to share the woman’s blood supply about nine days after fertilization. Approximately one-half of all human embryos are abnormal [ http://www.columbialabs.com/html/crinwom/infertility/fertilization.htm ]. QUOTE: “There is fortuitously a biologically based selection bias against abnormal human embryos. A signal is obviously recognized by the mother, which helps explain why so many embryos fail to implant. An abnormal embryo that manages to implant is often miscarried in the first 10 weeks of pregnancy. Early miscarriages are almost always the result of abnormal development of the fetus. This is why progesterone is not usually recommended for threatened abortion. It is only if the physician can confirm, using ultrasound, that the fetus is viable, will he prescribe progesterone to help maintain the pregnancy.”

Veterinary fetal sex pre-selection:

A similarly high level of interest in embryo sexing (fetal sex pre-selection, or sex ratio) exists in the livestock industries, and researchers have experimented with the timing of insemination method. A tool such as the bioZhena Corporation’s BioMeter is indispensable for this approach to embryo sexing, because of the required accuracy and precision of the timing. The controversy in the veterinary literature is a clear evidence that timing the insemination merely with respect to estrus is not good enough. The timing must be with respect to ovulation. The BioMeter, which detects ovulation as well as anticipating it, should make it possible to investigate questions such as whether different species have different lifetimes of the sperm. It should be possible to establish what kind of a distribution of sperm lifetimes there may be within a species. (See also under Timing of insemination.)

The 2001 book Biotechnology in Animal Husbandry (R. Renaville & A. Burney, editors, Kluwer Academic Publishers) has a chapter on Sex Preselection in Mammals. The abstract states: Since a long time, sex preselection has been a goal of the dairy and meat industry to increase the rate of response to selection, to reduce the cost of progeny [offspring or descendants] testing for elite males, and to produce desired specialized and genetically superior offspring. The authors write: In animal husbandry, pre-selection of sex prior to conception will dramatically impact a farmer’s productivity and income, because in each of the chosen target industries there is a strong preference for one sex over the other. For example, the dairy industry must have females to produce milk whereas the beef industry prefers males for their higher quality and lower cost of production. Sex pre-selection is one of the most sought after biotechnologies of all times.

In a section on Factors Affecting Sex Ratio, the experts write: Considerable folklore particularly in humans has arisen regarding preconception methods to manipulate animal sex ratio. The authors point out that conventional wisdom holds that steroid hormones play no role in sex predetermination in mammals, and it is only after gonadal differentiation that steroids sculpt the characteristics, which distinguish males from females. They also write that, for a number of years, the time of insemination or mating during estrus has been believed to influence the sex ratio of offspring, and they review various conflicting reports in several animal species. One kind of these results, in cows, indicates that the sex ratio may be affected by the maturational state of the oocyte [egg] at the time of insemination (yielding sex ratio 0.7 when inseminated immediately after, and 2.5 when inseminated 8 hours after polar body extrusion, which basically refers to ovulation timing). In their Conclusion, the experts again point out that “economics dictate that livestock producers are under increasing pressure to produce a given number of progeny of the desired sex.”

The results of sex pre-selection experiments depend on the state of the ovulating egg and of the sperm. This may depend on whether a given father belongs into a sub-population of males with long or short sperm lifespan. Whether there is such a thing as this kind of categorization within a species can only be established by means of a tool such as the Ovulona/BioMeter.

This holds for all species, including Homo Sapiens, of course, and public health statistics make such categorization actually quite likely. In the U.S., the sex ratio (number of males born per 1000 females) has declined from 1.052 in 1983 to 1.049 in 1999, having been as low as 1.047 twice in the late nineties. Interestingly, this decline is evidently due to the decline in the white race (from 1.057 to 1.052, through as low as 1.049) whereas for the black race the sex ratio has actually increased over those years (from 1.028 to 1.031, through as high as 1.036) [web reference: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005083.html ].

All this is suggestive of a likely strong reason why people will want to use the bioZhena [eukairosic] products, and the application will not even need to be advertised.

Infertility and A.R.T. or Assisted Reproductive Technologies

December 15, 2007

For these and other entries, see the Alphabet of bioZhena at

/2007/11/28/the-alphabet-of-biozhena/

 

 

Infertility:

Clinical infertility is the inability of a couple to achieve a pregnancy or to carry a pregnancy to term after one year of unprotected intercourse. If the difficulty to conceive lasts less than a year, the condition is referred to as reduced fertility or sub-fertility (see the previous post at /2007/12/14/sub-fertility-or-reduced-fertility/ ). Clinical infertility is classified further into male infertility, female infertility, couple infertility, and unexplained infertility. Studies have shown that in the past 50 years the quality and quantity of sperm has dropped by 42% and 50% respectively. In the past 20 years the decrease in sperm counts has occurred at a rate of 2% annually. For further information refer to Xeno-estrogens (see the Alphabet of bioZhena at /2007/11/28/the-alphabet-of-biozhena/ and the web reference therein).

In the U.S. alone, of the 6.7 million women with fertility problems in 1995, 42% had received some form of infertility services. The most common services were advice and diagnostic tests, medical help to prevent miscarriage, and drugs to induce ovulation [Fam. Plann. Perspect. 2000 May-Jun;32(3):132-7].

 

 

 

A Glossary of Infertility Terms and Acronyms published by the InterNational Council on Infertility Information Dissemination is available at http://www.inciid.org/glossary.html .

 

 

ART or Assisted Reproductive Technologies:

 

Also referred to sometimes colloquially as the “heroic procedures”, they are used to treat infertility patients. ART refers to all techniques involving direct retrieval of oocytes (eggs) from the ovary. They are: artificial insemination (AI), IVF (in vitro fertilization), TET (tubal embryo transfer), ZIFT (zygote intra-fallopian transfer), GIFT (gamete intra-fallopian transfer), ICSI (intra-cytoplasmic sperm injection), blastocyst transfer and other infertility treatments, such as IUI (intra-uterine insemination), assisted hatching (AZH), and immature oocyte maturation (IOM).

Web reference: http://www.ebiztechnet.com/cgi-bin/getit/links/Health/Reproductive_Health/Infertility/Education/Assisted_Reproductive_Technologies/

 

 

Sub-fertility or Reduced Fertility

December 14, 2007

For this and other entries, see the Alphabet of bioZhena at

/2007/11/28/the-alphabet-of-biozhena/

Subfertility (THE INITIAL TARGET OF BIOZHENA):

A state of less than normal fertility but not as bad as clinical infertility. Also called reduced fertility, it refers to the inability to conceive for more than about 4 months but not more than a year (which then becomes classified as clinical infertility, the inability to conceive after a year of unprotected intercourse). It is estimated that as many as one in six couples (17%) have difficulty in conceiving the number of children they want when they want them.

Again: Research suggests that between 14 and 17 percent of couples are affected by subfertility at some time during their reproductive lives. In fact, only eight out of 10 couples trying for a baby do get pregnant within 12 months. For approximately 10 percent of couples, pregnancy will still not have occurred after two years (clinical infertility). Sometimes the label of subfertility is used for couples who have had regular unprotected sexual intercourse for all of two years without conception taking place. This is a reflection of the fact that subfertility is becoming more and more commonplace.

According to one source ( http://www.womens-health.co.uk/ ), even for a healthy fertile couple, the ‘per month’ success rate (conception rate) is only around 15-20%, “so it is not at all uncommon to take some months to conceive”. Overall, around 70% of couples will have conceived by 6 months (a 30% subfertility rate). 85% conceive within 12 months (a 15% subfertility rate, “for the less impatient”). And 95% will be pregnant after 2 years of trying (technically, this is a conservatively estimated infertility rate of 5% – c.f. the 10% referenced above; or, this statistic might be perhaps considered the subfertility rate for the angelically patient). The monthly success rate in this population is 8%, and this statistic drops progressively as time goes on.

As for possible causes of difficulty to conceive, alcohol consumption, even in small amounts, can reduce a woman’s chance of conceiving by more than 50 percent, and smoking “…drastically reduced fertility in our sample”, as wrote a team from the Baltimore-based Health Care Financing Administration, in a report published in “Fertility and Sterility” (1998; 70: 632-637).

In terms of help, many people believe that fertility drugs, even when effective, remove conception from the intimate relationship between the partners, which means that it is to some extent beyond their control. Besides this loss of control, there are drawbacks and disadvantages to all forms of medically assisted conception. Some of them have potentially serious long-term effects. Consequently, many couples prefer to avoid these risks.

Women who describe overcoming infertility with the help of alternative therapists went to them because they had been offered drugs to induce ovulation but were reluctant to take them, when they learned of the possible side effects. Disturbing reports have appeared about the long-term as well as short-term effects of assisted conception. Increased miscarriage levels and premature and multiple births are not only very distressing but have considerable cost implications, both personally and societally (i.e., this is a public health issue). Babies born prematurely, or in multiple births, are at a disadvantage from the start. There are also some reports of increased rates of ovarian cancer in women who have taken fertility drugs, and of cancer in the babies of mothers who have had ovulation induced by drugs.

Subfertile couples are naturally interested in methods and tools that can help them to overcome the difficulty to conceive. The endocrinologist professor Brown may be quoted: “Failing to conceive when wanted is stressful and therefore favours infertility. It should be remembered that, apart from a few conditions such as blocked fallopian tubes, absent sperm and continued anovulation, most couples will conceive eventually without help. However, the modern expectation is one of immediate results, and the main function of assisted reproduction techniques is therefore to shorten the waiting time for conception.” To which we would add that bioZhena aims to offer a more affordable and safer alternative.

With the mentioned statistics of the fertile-age women suffering from the subfertility problem, this is a truly large opportunity in a constantly renewing and growing market. We are talking about 9 or 10 or even 18 million women in the USA alone – or quite possibly many more, taking into account all the impatience and demand for instant gratification in people today; plus about 50% of the 10 million of clinically infertile US couples, that is those who cannot afford the very costly ART treatments. [A.R.T. = Assisted Reproductive Technologies.]

This is the initial, early-stage, mission of bioZhena Corporation: To provide a definitive timing aid to couples experiencing difficulties in conceiving a baby. See also the entry for the Ovulona, where it is explained that, in this situation of reduced fertility, the basic problem is the proper timing of the intercourse.

 

BIOZHENA’S MISSION: A HEALTH TOOL FOR EVERY WOMAN

December 10, 2007

Far more than a tool to aid achieving and avoiding pregnancy

In the early years of the project, I published here a modestly formulated version of bioZhena’s vision statement. That was before a female OBGYN physician joined the team and together we broadened the vision and mission.

With the “Ambassador for the Vagina” it became plausible to fully explore the broad applicability of the technology, and to plan pregnancy monitoring and the transformation of the daily-inserted Ovulona into the semi-permanently worn telemetric cervical ring version that Kim the OBGYN named the Halo™.

Friendly Technology - with cervical ring & Ovulograph

For healthcare providers the Ovulograph™, and the Halo™ cervical ring for all women

Our vision is to create a product that practically every woman will want to use. The woman of the 21st century is envisaged to become accustomed to using her daily Ovulona and/or Halo self-check about as routinely as she is using her toothbrush.

It is pertinent to note that a May 2017 Human Factors in Computing Systems study found that the smartphone apps that track menstrual cycles “often disappoint users with a lack of accuracy… and an emphasis on pink and flowery form over function and customization”. Significantly, too, “teenage girls were relying on smartphone apps as their primary form of birth control”. Such evidence indicates that the market is primed for the bioZhena technology breakthrough.

The Ovulona™/Halo™ will be useful to the point of becoming an essential tool of women’s health management, both at home and, when appropriate, via the Ovulograph™, for the provider in the doctor’s office – and for the payer, too. Accordingly, the Ovulona will be supremely user-friendly and affordable for everyone.

See and listen to the slides in the link at the end of the post.

The Ovulona personal fertility status self-diagnosis device

 What is folliculogenesis - like EKG

Applications of cervical sensor girl w. device and other solutions - panorama1

.

Go to New mostly narrated slides 2017

Slide show takes a few moments to open

The Elevator: Swiss VC/PE deal-maker offers bioZhena to their investors

December 7, 2007

The Elevator, “The Magazine for a Wealth of Opportunity”, December 2007

 

This post is about the integral and unavoidable aspect of project development – seeking development capital. The title could conceivably read “From Switzerland With Love”, if a play on words were intended. Such as the name of The Elevator magazine is a reference to the phrase “elevator pitch”, a standard concept in the venture capital/private equity arena (meaning a very brief introductory pitch of the investment proposition; The Elevator articles are naturally somewhat more extensive than that).

The editor of The Elevator reviewed and published bioZhena after we responded to their invitation, “Seeking Deals to Fund”, http://www.linkedin.com/pub/0/456/786 .

The Elevator (“The Magazine for a Wealth of Opportunity”) is an impressively produced electronic magazine, attached. On page 3, the editor writes: “…since our first issue in March 2006 we have reviewed over 300 projects and retained 60 of them as features. More than 10,000 individuals have seen The €levator ; we’ve had a great diversity of projects, much interest and several deals closed over the past 12 months. … I invite all our readers to become active members of our investor’s forum …“.

On page 35 appears the following claim: OUR TEAM OF EXPERTS PROVIDES ACCESS TO THE BEST SOLUTIONS IN PRIVATE EQUITY, ASSET MANAGEMENT AND VIP ADVISORY.

Here are the headlines from the magazine’s title page, featuring a partial list of contents, and bioZhena is one of these featured listings:

  • How to open your own fund. An introduction by the experts of JP Fund Services
  • bioZhena. The turnkey technology for birth control
  • VentureLab. The professional matching platform
  • The Village Barbados. Prime Luxury Retreat seeking USD 31 million

The interesting thing about this presentation of bioZhena, by the Geneva-area international business VC/PE deal-maker, is their risk scale. We see a scale with 6 colors, from green and light green, through yellow, then light pink and dark pink, and finally the highest risk level is red.

The editor indicates the risk level of the bioZhena proposition as between light green and yellow (or level 4 on a scale of 1 to 11). This is the same as that of the real estate deal “The Village Barbados”, and it is better than the level 5 [yellow] risk level of the VentureLab deal, and it compares favorably with the various other listings in this December issue of the Elevator. Only the Yacht Club Mediterranean and the Castellan, New York real estate deals are assessed with lower risk levels, 2 and 1 respectively.

It is also interesting that bioZhena’s risk level is assessed the same as that of DealFlow, Toronto – “a television series that captures the drama and sport of global business as seen through the eayes of dealmakers”. DealFlow “is currently seeking US$620,000 in a US$875,000 Private Placement Offering of Convertible Preferred shares at US$20.00 per share”.

bioZhena’s investment opportunity is described as follows:

Investment Volume: Up to $ 15 Million (current Offering for $3M plus 1-year $3M Warrant)

Est. Return on Investment: 100%+

Est. Duration: Approx. 3 Years

Minimum Investment: $250,000 or a portion thereof at Company’s discretion

 

Ref.:

The Elevator, “The Magazine for a Wealth of Opportunity”, December 2007


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